By 1948 T.S. “Tom” Winter had been involved in the bee industry for more than 30 years. He made an interesting comment about AFB/foulbrood in a report to the NBA conference that year.
https://www.beekeeping.nz/NZBDA/NZBkpr/1948_08_NZBkpr.pdf#page=16
His perception was that when times were ‘normal’, when both production and marketing were reasonably ‘well balanced’, that beekeepers would take more care of their bee stocks generally, including putting the effort into properly dealing with AFB.
In Winter’s experience this level of attention would lead to either reduction or elimination of AFB, either for the outfit or for an entire district. (And remember, this was still a time when a range of ineffective ‘cures’ for AFB were still allowed!)
But, Winter said, changing economic conditions, either up or down, would result in AFB again ranging out of control.
Good economic times, times of high honey prices, would inevitably lead to new and inexperienced ‘untrained’ beekeepers entering the industry. Without the grasp of how to go about things, AFB was likely to appear and spread.
But bad economic times, times of low honey prices, were clearly linked to problems with abandoned or neglected hives. And that certainly contributes to the spread of AFB.
But again, with so many historical references, you must consider the context. Tom Winter was describing beekeepers who often had few or no other beekeeper neighbours. I’m not really sure why he felt that in ‘normal’ times a beekeeper would pay more attention to management.
Hive densities, for most areas, would be well below what they are now, for sure. And now beekeepers are more likely to transport hives over greater distances from then, again frustrating AFB control measures.
The article has some good AFB stats for the end of the 1940’s. You have to remember that while the AFB was found and initially recorded out in the Dept Ag districts, it was every few years that they would collect the type of statistics that give a meaningful picture of the industry.